Usually Federal Budgets are somewhat dull affairs, in which the Treasurer of the day hurls dozens if not hundreds of figures at voters in an effort to convince them that public finances are in good shape. Sometimes Budgets contain forward thinking bits of social policy, eg the recent decision to introduce paid parental leave.
At other times, income tax scales and welfare eligibility is fiddled with in an effort to squeeze extra cash out of whatever group in society (eg people with incomes exceeding $150,000pa) is out of political favour at the time. In 2009, however, Treasurer Wayne Swan has made a truly big picture decision with far reaching ramifications for most Australians – he has decided to go massively into deficit and therefore debt without any real plan of how the money will be repaid. And this could be bad for all of us.
Since the advent of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), it has become almost fashionable for governments around the world to borrow and spend money on a massive scale. Indeed, in the US and UK the monetary authorities have gone a step further and decided to print money on a scale not seen since Germany's ill-fated Weimar Republic in the 1920s. All this has been in an effort to stave off what could be the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and few have argued against these somewhat desperate measures.
Now that we're beginning to see signs of stabilisation and possibly even recovery, however, sober economic thinkers are becoming concerned with the public debt hangover that inevitably follows periods of large scale government spending. Sure, interest rates are historically low at the moment, and could go lower if central banks decide further stimulus is warranted. But they can't stay low forever, and as rates eventually rise, so will the cost of servicing all this recently created debt.
Because Australia went into the GFC with no net public sector debt, its projected borrowings still remain modest by world standards. To this end, Wayne Swan has attempted to reassure voters that the predicted maximum debt of $188 billion in four years' time is easily serviceable. My great fear, however, is that Australia's public debt will grow to a much larger number - say $300 billion – if the optimistic economic growth forecasts assumed by the Budget fail to materialise. Combine this with an inevitable rate rise caused by too many governments around the globe attempting to borrow trillions at the same time, and Australia runs the risk of experiencing a nasty and prolonged debt servicing hangover for years, if not decades, to come.